Statistical data of the Association of Automotive Business (AEB) for 2009 reveal an interesting picture. Then AEB published only data on foreign cars. In the first place settled Renault Logan. He fastened the Ford Focus II, which before that was the leader of the domestic market. A very symptomatic picture, if we consider that for 2009 there was a powerful economic crisis caused by the so-called. Wall-Striteovsky «bubbles». Our channel decided to analyze the results of past crises and predict future trends.

Post-crisis world is always another

Behind the decline, unambiguously, the rise should be. All restrictive measures will be removed over time, and the population will begin to return to normal life. Only she will not be the same. This is a fact, since we have already passed a whole series of crises. And the automotive world also passed them in a fairly large quantity so that such conclusions could be made. And not only in Russia. It suffices to recall the shock energy crisis of the beginning of the 70s of the last century. Then it was also associated with oil. Oil-producing Arab countries declared an embargo for the supply of «black gold» in developed countries that were supported by Israel in the next war in the Middle East. And the result of those events was the appearance, and then dominance on the car market of Europe VOLKSWAGEN GOLF car. And this fashion spread to the American market. Subsequently, American concerns began production of compact models.

Where the market pulls

Of course, the European and American markets are not a decree. And if the demand for Dacia Sandero republics will increase in the markets of the old continent, we will only delight them. But it seems that the demand for budget models will increase with us too. Not in vain, at the very beginning of our narrative, I remembered the leadership of Logan in 2009.

However, if, for example, the car market will collapse, for example, twice, then the budget sector can expect a fall in absolute values. We illustrate on real statistics. In the pre-crisis and very «fat» 2008, Domestic AvtoVAZ released 810 thousand cars, and already in the next crisis in 2009 — only 295 thousand «LAD». A similar decline occurred in the next post-block crisis. In the prevalent 2014, AvtoVAZ produced 575 thousand cars, and the next year only 352 thousand «LAD». In general, the market of new cars then fell 1.5 times, and the production of «Lada» decreased by 1.6 times. True, subsequently the share of Lada brand began to increase. In 2014, it accounted for 15.5%, and then increased to 20.6% in 2019. Quite impressive growth in the highly competitive market. A similar impressive growth was demonstrated by Korean brands — Hyundai and Kia. Total two brands in 2014 occupied a share of 15.1%, and by 2019 increased it to 23%.

It can be assumed that the decline in income level will lead to some redistribution of demand. The motorist will rethink its capabilities. Someone will «dyate» to the market for used cars. If it stops on a new car, this means the transition to the model not only lower class, but also more budgetary brands, which demonstrated us previous years on the Russian car market.

However, the Russian market is specific. Here, it is clearly not the bestsellers of cars of dimensional A-class. Never Chevrolet Spark or Kia Picanto will be able to become market leaders. They are in this price niche, rather replace used LADA or others. There will be no popular hatchbacks of V- and C-CLASS.

Russian car industry and so focused on the release of simple and inexpensive models. It is not surprising, given that in the leaders of sales, one of the most budget models in the Lada Granta market, and it makes up a slightly more expensive Lada Vesta and Kia Rio, VW Polo and Hyundai Solaris. The price positioning of these popular cars is shown in infographics from the autostat.

Leadership of the same Lada Granta is supported by a weighted price. But as we know, today work on the translation of this model is accustomed to the Global Access platform by 2021. Will AvtoVAZ be able to save her price positioning? After all, the Renault Logan is on average, more than one and a half hundred thousand rubles. But in the budget segment, each ruble affects the choice. If positioning in this price segment is preserved, then the model will remain the market leader, if not, we can return to times when the leader of the Russian market was the Korean model Kia Rio, as happened in 2016-2017.

Describing this class of cars, it is still worth noting that foreign bestsellers are now positioned in the price corridor 700-1000 thousand rubles. It should be noted that the appearance of updated Hyundai Solaris, Skoda Rapid car, Volkswagen Polo, the release of which has begun or is planned as soon as possible, accompanied by statements about the cost of maintaining the price. Automakers did everything to keep it: left for the previous platforms, proven engines and transmissions, etc. But still, these models will be more expensive than «way». It would seem that it would be necessary to bring a car in the Russian Federation, which will directly compete with domestic Granta and Vesta. But there are a few but. First. The production of folk foreign cars is still low organizal production. And if this car should be put in the production of such a car at the exit, there should be a sales volume of 30-50-100 thousand cars. That is the second coming. But for such a bold step, it is unlikely that some of the current automakers will decide. After all, they have commitments within the framework of Spec (Special Conditions) with the Ministry of Industry. And there are also model ranks, and investment volumes.