When the restoration of the world and Russian car market begin.

The International Consulting Agency Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) has given to this question. His specialists and analysts improved the forecast on the global automotive industry to the «stable» with the «negative» against the background of the expected recovery of sales.

The report published by the Agency notes that the sharp drop in the world car market as a result of the coronavirus pandemic reached the minimum threshold. However, over the next 12-18 months, the sale of passenger cars will grow sharply.

«A stable forecast for the global automotive industry reflects the sales growth until 2021 with continuing, but slow growth until 2023. Nevertheless, the supply of cars will not return to the dagedmamic level until the middle of the current decade,» said the Senior Vice President Moody’s Bruce Clark.

The expert noted that the current decline in sales is much worse than the fall of 2009. Moody’s Analysts expect the global supply of passenger cars for 19% this year, to about 73 million cars, and then grow to 80 million in 2021.

If you compare the last global crisis of the period from 2007 to 2009, then the deliveries fell by only 11%, and in 2010 they reached a record level again.

According to the agency, the drop in demand associated with coronavirus and the subsequent recession, has provided additional pressure on the industry in aggregate with the efforts of automakers on restructuring and modernization. Reducing revenues is a burden for companies that today are forced to invest in the production of electric vehicles with low emissions. «Nevertheless, the liquidity of automakers is high, and it should be enough to overcome the current stress,» the report is noted.

As for the Russian Federation and the Russian car market, our channel remembered the events of 2008-2010. Then the Russian auto industry became part of the global, as well as the economy as a whole. The decline of 2009 was impressive. The Russian market collapsed twice (diagram). However, it began to quickly recover in 2010-2011, surpassing the pre-crisis level in 2012.

Today, it is not necessary to count on such restoration, because several significant factors play against the dynamic post-person growth. This is a slow growth of gross domestic product, low prices of the global market for energy carriers, and above all, oil reduction in the course of national currency, etc.

In fact, the Russian car market has not recovered after the events of 2014 and imposed sanctions. It was predicted that such a recovery to the level of 2013 could occur by the middle of the decade.