Today, when negative data on the Russian car market has been published in April, it makes sense to look and predict: what period will the restoration occurs. Let it be not a complete recovery to the level of March of the month, when it was announced that sales of new cars in Russia grew by 23% at once, to 160 thousand cars. It was the final growth before falling into the abyss.
It makes sense to look at the situation in the world. As you know, the first felt Chinese car market felt first. In February, rigid quarantine measures were introduced, the most restricted consumption, sales of new cars collapsed by 79%, according to the data of the Chinese Association of Automobiles (CAAM). This low level of sales China has not seen since 2005. In March, a small revolutionary began. But at the end of April, in comparison with last year’s result, sales decreased by 2.6% and amounted to 1 million 536 thousand units. At the end of the four months of 2020, the Chinese car market decreased by 35.3% to 4 million 433 thousand cars.
As noted in the Chinese Association of Automobiles (SAM), the stabilization of the car market in April contributed to the weakening of quarantine measures to prevent the proliferation of coronavirus, as well as deferred purchasing demand formed in previous few months. In addition, the PRC government recommended that banks reduce interest rates on car loans, for two years extended subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles (until 2022), and in the regions various programs for subsidizing the purchase of new machines will be launched so that the population has been less used by public transport. CAAM forecast, car sales in China will decrease by 15-25% depending on how quickly the proliferation of coronavirus infection abroad will be taken.
European car market in one and a half-month after he began to react to the crisis. The sales collapse here happened in March. Sales of new cars in the four major countries of the European Union — in Germany, France, Italy and Spain — decreased by catastrophic values, the largest since statistics are being conducted. The market picture in the key countries of Europe is not the same. In Spain and Italy, which accepted the high blow of the epidemic, statistics are very depressing — sales decreased by 69% (up to 37,644 cars) and 85% (up to 28,326 cars), respectively. Two-digit values of the reduction in demand were recorded by all automotive companies, except Tesla, which showed 58% growth in March in Italy — up to 424 electric vehicles. But this is the only exception. France, where the situation with the spread of coronavirus infection is significantly prosperous, she asked no less — by 72%. But the most indicative picture in Germany, where the economy transfers disaster incomparably better: sales fell by 34% — to 215,119 units.
But April was not the best. In the same Germany, 120840 cars were sold (-61.1%). As noted in the Association of the Automotive Industry of Germany (VDA), the continued drop in sales is due to massive restrictions for the social life and commercial activities of organizations, including car dealers, as part of measures to prevent the proliferation of coronavirus.
Low result showed France with an indicator of 20997 machines (-88.8%). Next is the United Kingdom, the result of which amounted to 4121 sold car (-97.3%). As noted in the British Society of automakers and autodiets (SMMT), this is the worst result since February 1946.
That is, the European car market fell much deeper and so far only starts to recover in May during the period when they began to remove restrictions.
Based on the Chinese and European experience, it is possible to carefully predict that, provided that restrictions are removed, the rise in the car market will begin not earlier than June.