It is necessary to remind that the newest stage of the development of the automotive market in the Russian Federation is the replacing phases of lifts and decals of different depths and intensity. Each such a conjunctural cycle has influence on the market structure and the composition of its existing subjects. Today, the domestic market was again before the next cyclical decline.

As you know, in the USSR, the sale of cars grew almost every year, and explosive growth was associated with the expansion of the capacity of the automotive plants introduced. The planned economy of the USSR increased the well-being of the population, which has also affected the growth of the market, if it could be called with a shortage of cars. But in the modern Russian Federation it is not.

If last 2019 entered the historical chronicle as the beginning of the stagnation of the car market and a small decline after two-year reducing growth, then, apparently, the current 2020 will show us even greater decline, as evidenced by the latest events. But

Undoubtedly, Russian car market has strongly grew to the pre-crisis 2008, then in 2009 was the strongest decline, the nose of 2010, he was already restored. The peak was reached in 2012-2013. Yes, and the car market has been completely with another marking and model structure. Recall, it was at that time that the so-called folk foreign cars were published — Hyundai Solaris, Kia Rio New, Volkswagen Polo, etc. The imported cars of this class — Peugeot-301, Citroen Elysee, etc. tried to get into this fast-growing niche.

Today, the recovery cycle after the deep post-crystal crisis 2014-2015 showed us a completely different car market. Therefore, we will fix the situation at this turning point and show what indicators, what kind of marriage and model structure is characterized by a domestic fleet and car market — 2019.

Disappeared growth

Last year, recovery growth unexpectedly ended. The situation in the market recalled 2013, when the market began slipping from record sales values of new cars 2012. In the current cycle, the peak was 2018, when recovery growth after the crisis became maximum. However, the potential of the deferred demand of the period of the postcrem crisis was low and the market began to decline.

According to research and polls, deferred demand no longer affects the car market. But among the factors that will be the most influence on positive or negative trends are called the level of income of potential car buyers (53%), rising cars for cars (21%), economic and political stability in the country (16%). Traditional factors such as improved lending (3.5%) and marketing shares of distributors and manufacturers (3.5%) are minimized under current conditions.

These figures were voiced before the Martam sharp decline in the price of oil and the decline in the national currency rate that followed. Now you can only assume how much cars will fall.

But back to the assessment of the pre-crisis domestic car market. Today’s ceiling, as shown graphs of Chart number 2, make up about 7 million cars as new and used. In the last «high» period (2012-2013), this figure rose to the level of 8.3 — 8.5 million cars. At the same time, the ratio between new and used was in the best years 1: 2 — 1: 2.6. As you know, in the crisis years, the ratio changes in favor of second-hand cars. In the past five years, it was 1: 3 — 1: 4. In the past 2019, it was 1: 3.3.

At the same time, the monetary capacity of the car market has grown significantly in absolute values. If in 2012, at the level of sales, 2.76 million cars and the average car price of 848.1 thousand rubles. The indicator of the capacity of the Russian car market amounted to 2.34 trillion rubles, then last year at 1.63 million sold cars he rose to 2.55 trillion rubles. This increase occurred for two reasons.

First, it is, of course, the rise in prices for cars in dealerships. In December 2019, the average price of a car amounted to 1,506.6 thousand rubles. This is 78% higher than in September 2014, when the process of devaluation of the national currency of the country began. At that period, the average price tag of cars in the domestic market amounted to 1001.6 thousand rubles.

If you analyze this upward trend, then an interesting picture is obtained. The average price tag increased by 78%, and the dollar rate during this period grew by 66%, euro — by 43%, Japanese yen by 63%. It turns out that the car prices overtook even the official courses of foreign currencies in dynamics.