In the past crisis, which was observed in the country in the period 2015-2016, the automotive market left more than 120 models of foreign automakers. Our channel decided to figure out what the mechanism is why the model range of cars becomes more meager. Is there a reduction in model rows in the current year?

The alarming lead from the global black gold market encourage soberly to assess the situation and remember as it was in the past crisis. But in principle, nothing has changed, it means that, with a narrowing of the capacity of the domestic automotive market, we will have a more meager range in dealer centers.

Recall that today a model range is most numerous in the segment of imported cars, which accounts for a little more than 13% of sales on the Russian car. It is clear that to organize the local production of models is expensive and expensive, so automakers complement their model line of imports.

But on the path of the import model, there are a number of serious barriers — customs and certification that must be overcome. First, this is obtaining Russian approval of the type of vehicle (FTS). It is not suiced. Therefore, at this stage, there is a cutting off of those models that will be not fundamentally popular in the Russian market. Also, the imported car must be equipped with the ERA-GLONASS system.

Speaking about importing cars you need to mention customs duties. And although they are constantly reduced after joining the World Trade Organization from 30 to 25%, as happened in 2018, it is not a fact that in the amount with all the above measures to protect the car market, the automaker will still be solved on the import of a particular model.

Do not forget about the utilization collection, which in the same 2018 was raised immediately several times. For example, on a car with the most popular engine capacity from 1 to 2 liters, it amounted to 84 thousand rubles. And for cars with more volumetric motors and up to 182 thousand rubles.

Thus, after the intersection of the Russian border, the car grows sharply in price. Since it is difficult to repel ten million investments in the FTS, Million Million Investments in ERU-GLONASS, the customs duty and the utilization collection is not easy, but in addition the car is compact and from the mass segment, and not enjoyable in our market in our market, then his fate is predetermined. It suffices to remember the fate of two folk sedans Peugeot-301 and Citroen Elysee. In the past crisis, our car market left the hatchbacks and universals of the size classes in + and c +, not to mention such cars as cabriolets, minivans, etc. You need to sell several thousand cars to penetrate the costs. And here is the market and decides which model will be in standing in the showroom of the dealer center, and what is not there.

The same automakers who organize production in the territory of the Russian Federation, the state compensates for the utilization collection. This makes it possible to produce cars and install an acceptable price on them in the domestic market. Compare, the two models of Czech Skoda are a localized Rapid and a new Scala hatchback. One of Kaluga, the other from the Czech Republic. Conditionally they classmates. What choice makes the automaker? One in a popular classroom of popular foreign cars, and will disperse a circulation of several tens of thousands of copies a year, the other — in the segment with, where we do not really complain European hatchbacks.

If you recycle, you can bring a lot of examples of those models that have left our car market in the last five-year period. These are the same hatchbacks Skoda Fabia, Citroen C3, Wane Ford Cmax, Renault Scenic, the list will be huge from more than hundreds of models. In addition, they left the Russian car market such brands as Spanish Seat and Korean SsangYong. A number of Chinese brands also missed. True, in the period of biennial recovery of the 2017-2018 market and even last year, some models returned. At that time, to the occurrence of the collapse in the oil market, some macroeconomic stabilization was observed, first of all, the exchange rate of the ruble. And this made it possible to predict and make management decisions on the withdrawal of a model. In particular, Mitsubishi ASX returned, as well as a longer model Volkswagen Golf and other models of other autocontrace workers in Russia. And how in this regard, do not remember the return of the Opel brand.

But today, when ahead of the next crisis, caused by the collapse of the price of oil, is clear that not to avoid the departure of some individual automakers who have weak positions and unpopular models. And for what reasons.

It is not yet known how the Russian car market will fall deeply. But the falls are not avoided. It is enough to look at the next Chinese car market, where after quarantic events, the market asked for 70 or more percent. Such demand will again put the edge of the presence of those or other models in the market. In addition, as you can see, a fundamentally mechanism of customs and certification measures has not changed and continues to work today.

Well, the result, after we reduced all the factors in one point, and it does not make it pleases, the reduction of model rows of automakers will begin. Perhaps the crisis and a number of automakers will not spare, which will find the work on the Russian market risk and unprofitable. Who will be a candidate for this role, today we will not specify. These are companies from the third echelon, whose car sales are not more than a pair of thousand or even less.

If today we sell more than 250 models, then it is quite a lot for the one-and-half-million market of new cars. For example, on a much more capacious and promising market in India, only about one hundred models are sold. But India Country is still specific. Yes, and all sorts of fees for imported models there reach 100%. Therefore, India is not a decree. But a closer example is Brazil. Customs duties are installed there at the level of 35%, however, various limiters and eclipses act like our utilization collection. And 44 automobiles are working on which localized mass models produce. So, in Brazilian car dealerships there are only about 180 models of cars, clearly less than here. So keep the course on Brazil.