Over the past two decades, the current crisis in the domestic car market has become
Previous 2008 became the last of the turn of the so-called «fat» years in the Russian Federation, which came after a pulling downturn during all the 90s of the last century. In 2008 in the Russian Federation, for the first time in many years, a record number of cars was sold — 2 million 928 thousand pieces. The first signs of the crisis were manifested in December. And next 2009, the collapse of the market occurred almost twice: the recession was 56%. Accordingly, the indicator of the sold passenger and light commercial vehicles, according to AEB, decreased to 1,460 thousand. True, in the next year 2010, the trend was changed to the opposite and began a recovery growth. A total of this year was implemented 1,910 thousand cars, or plus 30% of the previous year. Such is the chronology and figures of the first crisis in the history of the new car market of the Russian Federation.
The next serious test for strength was the postcrem crisis, due to sanctions and devaluation of the national currency, as well as lower prices in the oil market. The first signs began to be observed before the events that occurred. During 2013-2014, a slight drop in demand occurred, which was the forerunner of subsequent negative events. Then the market analysts began to talk about the impending crisis, since demand despite stable macroeconomic indicators began to decline. In 2013, after a record (2,938 thousand cars) of 2012, it decreased by 5%, and in 2014, in comparison with the previous one, fell another 10%.
But the most critical became the next 2015, the market capacity decreased at once by 35%, and next 2016 — another 11%. That is, the second crisis on the scale of compression of the market capacity comparable since 2009, the difference consisted only that the fall was stretched for two years, reaching a similar bottom. One of the reasons for the devaluation of the national currency. We are talking only about quantitative indicators, but there were also qualitative changes on the market, unknown trends were revealed. Such as care of the automakers in Russia, closing the assembly of a number of projects and a number of other new developments in the domestic automotive market.
In the subsequent biennium, recovery growth began (2017-2018). However, he was very unstable and short. The car market has not recovered before pre-crisis values. Sales volumes were at the level of 60-65%. Thus, the car market was in a completely different situation. But in 2019 there was a new decline, although he was insignificant and at the end of the year the market fell by 2.4%. But even then, the most insane analysts and specialists began to warn about the new twist of the crisis, the main cause of which they saw a decrease in the solvent supply of the population. All these events turned out to be a prelude by 2020.
The first quarter of this year presented several surprises. Car sales in March grew by 4% at once. It was the reaction of motorists to the devaluation of the ruble. In general, the growth in the quarter amounted to 1.8%.
But further on the market there were dramatic events. At the end of March, car sales and dealer operations were abruptly interrupted due to the measures related to the situation with COVID-19. And after a relatively high level of sales in March 2020, in April, due to the situation around COVID-19, dealer centers were forced to suspend or significantly limit their activities. Therefore, in April, there was a sharp decline in sales fell by 72.4% compared to April 2019 (APPG). The Russian car business faced the largest monthly drop in retail sales of cars in the entire history of modern Russia. This month has already been called «Black April» 2020. The closure of auto-centers caused a strongest impact on the liquidity of dealers, and in the medium term — even in their sustainability. To work with customers to work with customers, dealers began to use new communication and sales formats, in particular online sales.
But in May, by decision of the regional authorities, the activities of car dealerships were permitted and car dealerships were opened. It immediately affected the indicators. If in «Black April» sales was recorded at 38,922 cars, then in May sales amounted to 63,033 cars. However, it is twice as smaller than in the not very successful February of the current year (Table).
Today it is difficult to predict how much the market falls for the entire current year whether the bottom of the two previous crises will be «breakdown. Analysts and market specialists call various indicators and trends. Undoubtedly one thing — cars will be expensive. This tendency is for a long time, it may increase if the next devaluation of the national currency occurs in the future. Recall that since March, the ruble exchange rate on the US dollar decreased by 15% and the domestic currency does not plan to strengthen. There is hope that the market will be next will not dive down, but will stop at a level. Because there is hope for measures that the state will take. Today there are interesting credit proposals on the market. Plus, a small deferred demand due to a pandemic. It should also be taken into account and the situation with the price of oil in the world market — it indicates that 2020 will be difficult.