Today there is no doubt that the country entered the next crisis cycle. How will the automotive market react to it? How will motorists behave?

Signs of economic crisis are already evident. For a simple alignment, the course of the national currency is such an indicator.

Those who are more advanced, look at the development of the situation in the oil market, which directly affects the Russian automotive market in the broadest sense of the word.

And here everything is sad enough. One of the heads of the LUKOIL oil company Fedun called the situation with prices for ferrous gold catastrophic. That is, there are all the grounds for falling into the despondency. Let’s not even mention the epidemiological situation.

However, just the Russians have a reason to simulate the further development of the situation, because quite recently we have done a similar path in the period after the Crimea and Russian Spring-2014, when the domestic car market has suffered as a result of sanctions announced by Western countries, and not only.

Today, the situation in the car market can be directly compared with the period of the autumn of 2014. In 2014, after the collapse of the national currency, there was an attractive demand for cars against the background of the waiting price of prices. This excitement in car dealers of official dealers lasted half a year, by February 2015, high demand was satisfied and then fell sharply. In 2015-2016, the market fell twice. And only in 2017, he began to demonstrate growth.

Now it is possible to similar effect, but the excitement will be to a lesser extent, since the situation is somewhat different — the ledity of the population is higher, the population has less money. In addition, since 2014, a number of automakers left the Russian market, the market has begun, and due to this, those who remained, feel more confident.

This is all said about the market of new cars.

And then there are answers to the questions raised, because the Russians enter the first crisis.

The behavior of the consumer in the crisis is included in the so-called economy phase. First, a person who observing universal deterioration of the situation begins to save greatly. This is expressed in the following. The first, if the motorist had a natural desire to change the car after some time of ownership (usually 3-5 years old), then a partially assessing the state of the car and its capabilities part of the motorists makes the decision to postpone. And from here grows the duration of the car.

If the time has come to change the car, then the usual motorist who saw a sharply increased price tag in the showroom will start looking for a car on the used car market. Saving in the price on the used market can be purchased a car even more dimensional class than planned to purchase.

Therefore, in the crisis, the sale of used cars grow, and new falls.

The next aspect of savings is to reduce the car’s mileage. We ride less — less refuel.

Who can make his gheeft in the crisis, so it’s car services. A car with a large mileage is more often a repair. But with this repair, the car owner also intends to significantly save. He no longer looks towards the original spare parts, and intends to put a duplicate. At the same time, in quality today, duplicates are not inferior to the original details. Here are the main features of the crisis behavior of consumers.

And in conclusion, we’ll announce the forecast for the development of the car market, which was offered the specialists of the car station. They predicted the car market for new cars depending on the price of oil, the main exporting goods of the Russian Federation.

Mathematical calculations have shown that if the average price of barrel oil in 2020 will be at the level of 40 USD, the market of new passenger cars can fall by 22% (up to 1.27 million pieces). In the event of the average annual price of Brent in 50 USD, the car market will decline less — by 12%. In the most negative version — when reducing oil prices up to 30 USD — the market may fall 34% to 1.08 million units. It should be emphasized that the above indicators are obtained excluding possible changes in a number of other macroeconomic factors.